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Abstract Current earthquake forecasting approaches are mainly based on probabilistic assumptions, as earthquakes seem to occur randomly. Such apparent randomness can however be caused by deterministic chaos, rendering deterministic short‐term forecasts possible. Due to the short historical and instrumental record of earthquakes, chaos detection has proven challenging, but more frequently occurring slow slip events (SSE) are promising candidates to probe for determinism. Here, we characterize the SSE signatures obtained from GNSS position time series in the Hikurangi Subduction Zone (New Zealand) to investigate whether the seemingly random SSE occurrence is governed by chaotic determinism. We find evidence for deterministic chaos for stations recording shallow SSEs, suggesting that short‐term deterministic forecasting of SSEs, similar to weather forecasts, might indeed be possible over timescales of a few weeks. We anticipate that our findings could open the door for next‐generation SSE forecasting, adding new tools to existing probabilistic approaches. 

Importance The p.Asp67Tyr genetic variant in the GJA3 gene is responsible for congenital cataracts in a family with a high incidence of glaucoma following cataract surgery. Objective To describe the clinical features of a family with a strong association between congenital cataracts and glaucoma following cataract surgery secondary to a genetic variant in the GJA3 gene ( NM_021954 .4:c.199G>T, p.Asp67Tyr). Design, Setting, and Participants This was a retrospective, observational, case series, genetic association study from the University of Iowa spanning 61 years. Examined were the ophthalmic records from 1961 through 2022 of the family members of a 4-generation pedigree with autosomal dominant congenital cataracts. Main Outcomes and Measures Frequency of glaucoma following cataract surgery and postoperative complications among family members with congenital cataract due to the p.Asp67Tyr GJA3 genetic variant. Results Medical records were available from 11 of 12 family members (7 male [63.6%]) with congenital cataract with a mean (SD) follow-up of 30 (21.7) years (range, 0.2-61 years). Eight of 9 patients with congenital cataracts developed glaucoma, and 8 of 8 patients who had cataract surgery at age 2 years or younger developed glaucoma following cataract surgery. The only family member with congenital cataracts who did not develop glaucoma had delayed cataract surgery until 12 and 21 years of age. Five of 11 family members (45.5%) had retinal detachments after cataract extraction and vitrectomy. No patients developed retinal detachments after prophylactic 360-degree endolaser. Conclusions and Relevance The GJA3 genetic variant, p.Asp67Tyr, was identified in a 4-generation congenital cataract pedigree from Iowa. This report suggests that patients with congenital cataract due to some GJA3 genetic variants may be at especially high risk for glaucoma following cataract surgery. Retinal detachments after cataract extraction in the first 2 years of life were also common in this family, and prophylactic retinal endolaser may be indicated at the time of surgery. 

Abstract Seafloor pressure sensor data is emerging as a promising approach to resolve vertical displacement of the seafloor in the offshore reaches of subduction zones, particularly in response to slow slip events (SSEs), although such signals are challenging to resolve due to sensor drift and oceanographic signals. Constraining offshore SSE slip distribution is of key importance to understanding earthquake and tsunami hazards posed by subduction zones. We processed seafloor pressure data from January to October 2019 acquired at the Hikurangi subduction zone, offshore New Zealand, to estimate vertical displacement associated with a large SSE that occurred beneath the seafloor array. The experiment included three self‐calibrating sensors designed to remove sensor drift, which, together with ocean general circulation models, were essential to the identification and correction of long‐period ocean variability remaining in the data after applying traditional processing techniques. We estimate that long‐period oceanographic signals that were not synchronous between pressure sensors and reference sites influenced our inferred displacements by 0.3–2.6 cm, suggesting that regionally deployed reference sites alone may not provide sufficient ocean noise correction. After incorporating long‐period ocean variability corrections into the processing, we calculate 1.0–3.3 cm of uplift during the SSE offshore Gisborne at northern Hikurangi, and 1.1–2.7 cm of uplift offshore the Hawke's Bay area at central Hikurangi. Some Hawke Bay displacements detected by pressure sensors near the trench were delayed by 6 weeks compared to the timing of slip onset detected by onshore Global Navigation Satellite System sites, suggesting updip migration of the SSE. 

Abstract We present the results of a search for gravitational-wave transients associated with core-collapse supernova SN 2023ixf, which was observed in the galaxy Messier 101 via optical emission on 2023 May 19, during the LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA 15th Engineering Run. We define a five-day on-source window during which an accompanying gravitational-wave signal may have occurred. No gravitational waves have been identified in data when at least two gravitational-wave observatories were operating, which covered ∼14% of this five-day window. We report the search detection efficiency for various possible gravitational-wave emission models. Considering the distance to M101 (6.7 Mpc), we derive constraints on the gravitational-wave emission mechanism of core-collapse supernovae across a broad frequency spectrum, ranging from 50 Hz to 2 kHz, where we assume the gravitational-wave emission occurred when coincident data are available in the on-source window. Considering an ellipsoid model for a rotating proto-neutron star, our search is sensitive to gravitational-wave energy 1 × 10⁻⁴M_⊙c²and luminosity 2.6 × 10⁻⁴M_⊙c²s⁻¹for a source emitting at 82 Hz. These constraints are around an order of magnitude more stringent than those obtained so far with gravitational-wave data. The constraint on the ellipticity of the proto-neutron star that is formed is as low as 1.08, at frequencies above 1200 Hz, surpassing past results. 

Abstract Continuous gravitational waves (CWs) emission from neutron stars carries information about their internal structure and equation of state, and it can provide tests of general relativity. We present a search for CWs from a set of 45 known pulsars in the first part of the fourth LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA observing run, known as O4a. We conducted a targeted search for each pulsar using three independent analysis methods considering single-harmonic and dual-harmonic emission models. We find no evidence of a CW signal in O4a data for both models and set upper limits on the signal amplitude and on the ellipticity, which quantifies the asymmetry in the neutron star mass distribution. For the single-harmonic emission model, 29 targets have the upper limit on the amplitude below the theoretical spin-down limit. The lowest upper limit on the amplitude is 6.4 × 10⁻²⁷for the young energetic pulsar J0537−6910, while the lowest constraint on the ellipticity is 8.8 × 10⁻⁹for the bright nearby millisecond pulsar J0437−4715. Additionally, for a subset of 16 targets, we performed a narrowband search that is more robust regarding the emission model, with no evidence of a signal. We also found no evidence of nonstandard polarizations as predicted by the Brans–Dicke theory. 

Abstract We present results from a search for X-ray/gamma-ray counterparts of gravitational-wave (GW) candidates from the third observing run (O3) of the LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA network using the Swift Burst Alert Telescope (Swift-BAT). The search includes 636 GW candidates received with low latency, 86 of which have been confirmed by the offline analysis and included in the third cumulative Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalogs (GWTC-3). Targeted searches were carried out on the entire GW sample using the maximum-likelihood Non-imaging Transient Reconstruction and Temporal Search pipeline on the BAT data made available via the GUANO infrastructure. We do not detect any significant electromagnetic emission that is temporally and spatially coincident with any of the GW candidates. We report flux upper limits in the 15–350 keV band as a function of sky position for all the catalog candidates. For GW candidates where the Swift-BAT false alarm rate is less than 10⁻³Hz, we compute the GW–BAT joint false alarm rate. Finally, the derived Swift-BAT upper limits are used to infer constraints on the putative electromagnetic emission associated with binary black hole mergers. 

Abstract The magnetar SGR 1935+2154 is the only known Galactic source of fast radio bursts (FRBs). FRBs from SGR 1935+2154 were first detected by the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment (CHIME)/FRB and the Survey for Transient Astronomical Radio Emission 2 in 2020 April, after the conclusion of the LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA Collaborations’ O3 observing run. Here, we analyze four periods of gravitational wave (GW) data from the GEO600 detector coincident with four periods of FRB activity detected by CHIME/FRB, as well as X-ray glitches and X-ray bursts detected by NICER and NuSTAR close to the time of one of the FRBs. We do not detect any significant GW emission from any of the events. Instead, using a short-duration GW search (for bursts ≤1 s) we derive 50% (90%) upper limits of 10⁴⁸(10⁴⁹) erg for GWs at 300 Hz and 10⁴⁹(10⁵⁰) erg at 2 kHz, and constrain the GW-to-radio energy ratio to ≤10¹⁴−10¹⁶. We also derive upper limits from a long-duration search for bursts with durations between 1 and 10 s. These represent the strictest upper limits on concurrent GW emission from FRBs. 

Abstract Despite the growing number of binary black hole coalescences confidently observed through gravitational waves so far, the astrophysical origin of these binaries remains uncertain. Orbital eccentricity is one of the clearest tracers of binary formation channels. Identifying binary eccentricity, however, remains challenging due to the limited availability of gravitational waveforms that include the effects of eccentricity. Here, we present observational results for a waveform-independent search sensitive to eccentric black hole coalescences, covering the third observing run (O3) of the LIGO and Virgo detectors. We identified no new high-significance candidates beyond those that have already been identified with searches focusing on quasi-circular binaries. We determine the sensitivity of our search to high-mass (total source-frame massM> 70M_⊙) binaries covering eccentricities up to 0.3 at 15 Hz emitted gravitational-wave frequency, and use this to compare model predictions to search results. Assuming all detections are indeed quasi-circular, for our fiducial population model, we place a conservative upper limit for the merger rate density of high-mass binaries with eccentricities 0 <e≤ 0.3 at 16.9 Gpc⁻³yr⁻¹at the 90% confidence level. 

Abstract Gravitational lensing by massive objects along the line of sight to the source causes distortions to gravitational wave (GW) signals; such distortions may reveal information about fundamental physics, cosmology, and astrophysics. In this work, we have extended the search for lensing signatures to all binary black hole events from the third observing run of the LIGO-Virgo network. We search for repeated signals from strong lensing by (1) performing targeted searches for subthreshold signals, (2) calculating the degree of overlap among the intrinsic parameters and sky location of pairs of signals, (3) comparing the similarities of the spectrograms among pairs of signals, and (4) performing dual-signal Bayesian analysis that takes into account selection effects and astrophysical knowledge. We also search for distortions to the gravitational waveform caused by (1) frequency-independent phase shifts in strongly lensed images, and (2) frequency-dependent modulation of the amplitude and phase due to point masses. None of these searches yields significant evidence for lensing. Finally, we use the nondetection of GW lensing to constrain the lensing rate based on the latest merger-rate estimates and the fraction of dark matter composed of compact objects.